Methodology
The Global War Index turns the day's international news coverage into a single, easy-to-read number between 0 and 100 for each type of war risk. Like a fear gauge for markets, it measures how threatening the news feels — not the odds that a war will start.
What we read
Every few hours we collect headlines and summaries from a diverse set of international news outlets and specialist defense, security and nuclear publications. Each story is grouped with other reports of the same event, so a single event covered by many outlets is counted once.
What we look at
- Severity — what actually happened: rhetoric, threats, drills, deployments, attacks, or the use of unconventional weapons.
- Attention — how much of the day's conflict coverage is about each type of war.
- Breadth — how many different outlets are covering it.
- Direction — whether events point toward escalation or toward de-escalation, such as ceasefires and talks.
- Open wars — sustained armed fighting sets a minimum reading, and hotspots with several active fronts read higher.
- Extent — the Global reading also weighs how much of the world is at war, so a few intense conflicts do not read like a world war.
- Proximity — for country readings, nearness to active conflicts adds some risk.
- Involvement — countries taking part in wars abroad carry some additional risk.
- Alliances — members of an alliance that is militarily involved carry a little additional risk.
- Context — how today compares with the recent past for that same index.
Readings are smoothed so that one isolated headline cannot swing an index, while genuinely extreme events can move it quickly.
The scale
- Calm 0–19
- Tense 20–39
- Elevated 40–59
- High Alert 60–79
- Extreme 80–100
The indices
- Global War Index
- The overall reading, driven most by whichever risks are highest on the day.
- Nuclear War
- Nuclear threats, strategic force posture, tests, doctrine and incidents around nuclear facilities.
- Hybrid War
- Cyberattacks, sabotage of infrastructure, state disinformation and coercive economic measures.
- Great-Power War
- The risk of direct conflict between major military powers.
- Civil War
- Internal armed conflict, coups, insurgencies and mass political violence.
- Biological & Chemical
- Use, allegations and programs involving chemical or biological weapons.
- Hotspots
- Regional readings shown when a region receives sustained coverage.
- World map
- Every country is scored on the same scale from the events that take place in it or directly threaten it, plus smaller contributions from its proximity to active conflicts, its involvement in wars abroad and its alliances. Country readings update once a day. Countries without conflict coverage read as Calm. Continental regions — North America, Central America & Caribbean, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceania — are also scored. Countries and regions are shown for context and do not feed the Global War Index.
Limits
The index reflects what the news reports and how it reports it. Coverage can be incomplete, biased or wrong, and quiet but dangerous developments may not register. Treat the index as a barometer of the conversation, not as a prediction.